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This chapter discusses how to achieve a sustainable energy transition under conditions of uncertainty such as climate change, geopolitical risks, and the unpredictability of technological advances. It first classifies energy types and outlines the background of the green transition, clarifying that its necessity lies in simultaneously achieving three goals: climate change mitigation, energy security, and social sustainability. Next, it presents categories of uncertainties shaping the transition. Technological uncertainty relates to the maturity and diffusion speed of key technologies; economic uncertainty stems from price volatility and market risks; political and institutional uncertainty arises from inconsistent policies and unstable regulations; social acceptance concerns local opposition and challenges in building trust; and natural and environmental uncertainty involves renewable energy variability and reciprocal impacts of climate change. Under such uncertainties, two strategic approaches are highlighted: “robust optimization,” which emphasizes rationality in minimizing regret and avoiding worst-case outcomes, and “adaptive policymaking,” which stresses dynamic rationality through flexible adjustments in response to changing conditions. Drawing on international policy practices, the chapter shows the value of combining both approaches complementarily. Regarding fossil fuels, while acknowledging the depth of dependency, the green transition is not merely about their “end,” but requires transformation in utilization through technological innovations such as CCUS. Renewable energy, despite rapid growth in deployment and investment as well as numerous advanced cases, still faces challenges of cost, grid integration, and local consensus-building. Nuclear power is considered in terms of both existing fission technologies and the long-term potential of fusion. Although fusion attracts attention for its cleanliness and sustainability, technological and economic hurdles remain high. Nevertheless, the coexistence of nuclear power and renewables is suggested as a pathway to enhance the stability of the energy mix.

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The Fundamental Framework of Green Energy Transition in the Era of Uncertainty

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Weisheng Zhou

摘要

This chapter discusses how to achieve a sustainable energy transition under conditions of uncertainty such as climate change, geopolitical risks, and the unpredictability of technological advances. It first classifies energy types and outlines the background of the green transition, clarifying that its necessity lies in simultaneously achieving three goals: climate change mitigation, energy security, and social sustainability. Next, it presents categories of uncertainties shaping the transition. Technological uncertainty relates to the maturity and diffusion speed of key technologies; economic uncertainty stems from price volatility and market risks; political and institutional uncertainty arises from inconsistent policies and unstable regulations; social acceptance concerns local opposition and challenges in building trust; and natural and environmental uncertainty involves renewable energy variability and reciprocal impacts of climate change. Under such uncertainties, two strategic approaches are highlighted: “robust optimization,” which emphasizes rationality in minimizing regret and avoiding worst-case outcomes, and “adaptive policymaking,” which stresses dynamic rationality through flexible adjustments in response to changing conditions. Drawing on international policy practices, the chapter shows the value of combining both approaches complementarily. Regarding fossil fuels, while acknowledging the depth of dependency, the green transition is not merely about their “end,” but requires transformation in utilization through technological innovations such as CCUS. Renewable energy, despite rapid growth in deployment and investment as well as numerous advanced cases, still faces challenges of cost, grid integration, and local consensus-building. Nuclear power is considered in terms of both existing fission technologies and the long-term potential of fusion. Although fusion attracts attention for its cleanliness and sustainability, technological and economic hurdles remain high. Nevertheless, the coexistence of nuclear power and renewables is suggested as a pathway to enhance the stability of the energy mix.