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This chapter analyzes the epistemology of uncertainty and the precautionary principle, highlighting the need for a new philosophical and scientific approach to managing complexity and scientific indeterminacy. The first part of the chapter is focused on comparing the epistemology of certainty, based on determinism, linear causality and reductionism, with that of uncertainty, which emphasizes complexity, relationships and probability management. In the second part, the precautionary principle is revisited in light of this new epistemology, emphasizing how political and legal decisions should be based not only on scientific certainties but also on conscious governance of uncertainty, particularly in the fields of health and the environment.

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The Epistemological Status of Uncertainty and the Precautionary Principle

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Angelo Marinucci,
  • Marta Bertolaso

摘要

This chapter analyzes the epistemology of uncertainty and the precautionary principle, highlighting the need for a new philosophical and scientific approach to managing complexity and scientific indeterminacy. The first part of the chapter is focused on comparing the epistemology of certainty, based on determinism, linear causality and reductionism, with that of uncertainty, which emphasizes complexity, relationships and probability management. In the second part, the precautionary principle is revisited in light of this new epistemology, emphasizing how political and legal decisions should be based not only on scientific certainties but also on conscious governance of uncertainty, particularly in the fields of health and the environment.