UAE-Türkiye Relations: The Good Times, the Bad Times, and the New Era—A Case Study of the UAE’s Evolving Regional Ties
摘要
Diplomatic relations between states in the Middle East are subject to relational volatility, characterised by abrupt fluctuations oscillating between the two extremes of fervent enmity and intimate amity. Bilateral relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Türkiye in the last two decades are emblematic of this ingrained feature of Middle Eastern geopolitics. UAE-Türkiye relations have witnessed periods of close cooperation, unprecedented tension, and swift reconciliation, not necessarily in that order. This constant shift in relations between the UAE and Türkiye calls for a scrupulous assessment, evading stereotypical narratives, not least since understanding the dynamics of this particular relationship carries critical importance thanks to the transformative implications of UAE-Türkiye relations for broader regional stability, security, and development. This chapter presents a thorough analysis of this relationship in the last two decades, pivotal in its presence as well as in its absence, discussing the entire set of parameters that have influenced the evolution of relations between the UAE and Türkiye, for better or for worse. It argues that the UAE and Türkiye recalibrate their policies in response to both regional and international developments that inform, influence, and induce the transformations observed in their bilateral relationship. The chapter is structured on a periodisation of bilateral relations between the two states, drawing on all the available qualitative and quantitative data on various dimensions of the relationship.