Sustainable Economy and Carbon Trade
摘要
In the context of global climate action, carbon trading—originating with the Kyoto Protocol—frames greenhouse-gas reduction as an asset market. We analyze the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as the world’s benchmark and ask three questions: Do allowance prices behave like established commodities; do they move with oil and gold; and are they affected by US monetary policy? Daily data are examined with DCC-GARCH and time-varying parameter VAR models. Results show that allowance prices share volatility traits with oil and, to a lesser extent, gold, confirming the “energization” of carbon. Moreover, higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar dampen allowance prices, linking climate finance to central bank decisions. Strengthening markets through green finance incentives, hedging energy-transition risks, and incorporating carbon market stability into monetary deliberations can mobilize private capital while safeguarding macro-stability. Carbon trading therefore functions simultaneously as a disciplinary weapon against emissions and a developmental tool for a low-carbon economy.