Rare Disasters and Fiat Currency
摘要
COVID-19 exposed the limits of conventional monetary policy and forced central banks to improvise. This chapter gauges the relative effectiveness of three policy archetypes—price-based interest rate cuts, quantity-based liquidity injections, and China’s hybrid “structural” mix—through a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to the Chinese economy. Simulations show that when shocks drive policy rates toward the zero lower bound, pure interest rate measures provide little support. Unconventional liquidity facilities, widely employed in the US and Europe, better stabilize output but raise longer-term inflation risk. China’s structural approach—combining targeted credit lines, reserve-requirement adjustments, and modest rate moves—delivers the most balanced outcome, cushioning activity without igniting excessive price pressures. Policy lessons are threefold. First, rare disasters call for adaptable hybrid instruments that can channel funds to stressed sectors while preserving overall financial discipline. Second, credibility matters: governments must shore up confidence yet avoid crowding-out market signals. Finally, because extreme shocks propagate quickly across borders, coordinated frameworks among major central banks are essential for containing spillovers and safeguarding sustainable recovery.