This chapter investigates the dynamic link between illicit economies and political outcomes in the Kokang region of northeastern Myanmar. It argues that while Operation 1027, led by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), was rooted in long-planned territorial ambitions, the proliferation of cyber scam operations created a “golden opportunity” for the operation’s success. The chapter’s central theoretical argument is that the rise of a digitalized conflict economy (DCE), that is, transnational cybercrime and online scams, fundamentally disrupted the traditional system of “ceasefire crony capitalism” that had governed the borderlands for decades. Empirically, the chapter traces Kokang’s economic evolution, detailing its historical reliance on opium and drug trafficking, the subsequent emergence of the fixed-capital casino economy, and the final destructive transition into cyber scam syndicates run by powerful local families. Integrating evidence from government reports, financial intelligence, and interviews with local residents, the analysis illustrates the multifaceted roles of the Myanmar military and the collapse of its control under external pressure. Ultimately, the chapter concludes that, given the transnational nature and staggering scale of the cybercrime originating in Myanmar, the principle of non-interference upheld by regional organizations such as ASEAN is unsustainable and must be urgently reconsidered.

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Illicit Activities in the Kokang Region

  • Myo Naing,
  • Yizheng Zou

摘要

This chapter investigates the dynamic link between illicit economies and political outcomes in the Kokang region of northeastern Myanmar. It argues that while Operation 1027, led by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), was rooted in long-planned territorial ambitions, the proliferation of cyber scam operations created a “golden opportunity” for the operation’s success. The chapter’s central theoretical argument is that the rise of a digitalized conflict economy (DCE), that is, transnational cybercrime and online scams, fundamentally disrupted the traditional system of “ceasefire crony capitalism” that had governed the borderlands for decades. Empirically, the chapter traces Kokang’s economic evolution, detailing its historical reliance on opium and drug trafficking, the subsequent emergence of the fixed-capital casino economy, and the final destructive transition into cyber scam syndicates run by powerful local families. Integrating evidence from government reports, financial intelligence, and interviews with local residents, the analysis illustrates the multifaceted roles of the Myanmar military and the collapse of its control under external pressure. Ultimately, the chapter concludes that, given the transnational nature and staggering scale of the cybercrime originating in Myanmar, the principle of non-interference upheld by regional organizations such as ASEAN is unsustainable and must be urgently reconsidered.