In the context of frequent major epidemics, communities, as the frontline of prevention and control, often lack a systematic understanding of the epidemic “state” and evolving “trend”. This study aims to construct a scenario model centered on hazard-affected bodies, facilitating the transformation from experience-based judgment to scenario-informed epidemic governance at the community level. Our study identifies key hazard-affected bodies in community-level epidemic transmission and analyzes their state evolution and transition rules. Based on these transitions and resulting transmission chains, we propose a community epidemic scenario model that also incorporates external intervention effects. A Shanghai community case study is conducted to validate the model's effectiveness. The proposed model offers a structured tool for representing epidemic scenarios and supporting timely community-level response strategies, thereby enhancing the adaptability and precision of emergency governance.

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Epidemic Scenario Construction for Major Epidemics in Communities: Driven by Hazard-Affected Body Dynamics

  • Ming Cong,
  • Yaxin Du,
  • Lili Rong,
  • Yue Feng

摘要

In the context of frequent major epidemics, communities, as the frontline of prevention and control, often lack a systematic understanding of the epidemic “state” and evolving “trend”. This study aims to construct a scenario model centered on hazard-affected bodies, facilitating the transformation from experience-based judgment to scenario-informed epidemic governance at the community level. Our study identifies key hazard-affected bodies in community-level epidemic transmission and analyzes their state evolution and transition rules. Based on these transitions and resulting transmission chains, we propose a community epidemic scenario model that also incorporates external intervention effects. A Shanghai community case study is conducted to validate the model's effectiveness. The proposed model offers a structured tool for representing epidemic scenarios and supporting timely community-level response strategies, thereby enhancing the adaptability and precision of emergency governance.