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The increasing integration of high-penetration renewable energy has led to prominent issues in power grid stability. This paper proposes a hybrid modeling method that integrates Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with the Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM), addressing the dual challenges of insufficient accuracy in traditional parametric distribution models and the low efficiency of Monte Carlo simulations. By employing non-parametric probabilistic modeling to accurately characterize the spatiotemporal characteristics of wind-solar output, a refined model for wind turbine and photovoltaic generation is established. Combined with SRSM, a coordinated regulation mechanism between hydropower and renewables under fault scenarios is constructed to support system stability control strategies. A case study on a certain hydropower station demonstrates that the proposed method can accurately reflect system responses, providing theoretical support for the secure operation of power grids with high renewable penetration.

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Stability Enhancement Strategy for Wind-Solar-Hydropower Coupled Systems Based on a KDE-SRSM Hybrid Modeling Method

  • 会议论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Youhan Deng,
  • Rongzhao Hu,
  • Mingyuan Liu,
  • Youping Li,
  • Xiaojun Hua,
  • Lei Wang,
  • Hui Cao,
  • Zhengfeng Bao,
  • Zhengyang Tang,
  • Chengxi Liu

摘要

The increasing integration of high-penetration renewable energy has led to prominent issues in power grid stability. This paper proposes a hybrid modeling method that integrates Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with the Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM), addressing the dual challenges of insufficient accuracy in traditional parametric distribution models and the low efficiency of Monte Carlo simulations. By employing non-parametric probabilistic modeling to accurately characterize the spatiotemporal characteristics of wind-solar output, a refined model for wind turbine and photovoltaic generation is established. Combined with SRSM, a coordinated regulation mechanism between hydropower and renewables under fault scenarios is constructed to support system stability control strategies. A case study on a certain hydropower station demonstrates that the proposed method can accurately reflect system responses, providing theoretical support for the secure operation of power grids with high renewable penetration.