The global expansion of plastic-mulched farmland, including China, raises concerns due to its rapid pace. Intensified tillage practices fulfill high food demand with limited farmland by increasing yields but harm the environment and health. Limited understanding exists regarding the underlying mechanisms of spatial diversity. This chapter uses spatial regression techniques to identify the multi-scale patterns and driving forces. Nationally, fertility, frequent disasters, population density, and industrialized vegetable bases foster expansion, yet annual precipitation and urbanization-related factors may impose constraints. Regionally, impacts are at times uncertain and contradictory. In agricultural optimization and development regions (AODRs), the distribution of plastic-mulched farmland is especially relevant to soil fertility, household income, and planning factors but is subject to land slope. Moderate development regions (MDRs) with unfavorable conditions witness plastic-mulched farmland growth propelled by precipitation, temperature, and factors like e-commerce, fixed assets, and road infrastructure. We have quantified these impacts through policy simulations and identified that their extents can be largely different across regions. For example, adding one key vegetable county in the plan is assumed to increase the proportion of plastic-mulched farmland by 0.229% in MDRs while only by 0.089% in AODRs. Crucially, adapting state-led food localization initiatives is imperative.

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Spatial Variation of Plastic-Mulched Farmland

  • Zhang Yingnan,
  • Long Hualou

摘要

The global expansion of plastic-mulched farmland, including China, raises concerns due to its rapid pace. Intensified tillage practices fulfill high food demand with limited farmland by increasing yields but harm the environment and health. Limited understanding exists regarding the underlying mechanisms of spatial diversity. This chapter uses spatial regression techniques to identify the multi-scale patterns and driving forces. Nationally, fertility, frequent disasters, population density, and industrialized vegetable bases foster expansion, yet annual precipitation and urbanization-related factors may impose constraints. Regionally, impacts are at times uncertain and contradictory. In agricultural optimization and development regions (AODRs), the distribution of plastic-mulched farmland is especially relevant to soil fertility, household income, and planning factors but is subject to land slope. Moderate development regions (MDRs) with unfavorable conditions witness plastic-mulched farmland growth propelled by precipitation, temperature, and factors like e-commerce, fixed assets, and road infrastructure. We have quantified these impacts through policy simulations and identified that their extents can be largely different across regions. For example, adding one key vegetable county in the plan is assumed to increase the proportion of plastic-mulched farmland by 0.229% in MDRs while only by 0.089% in AODRs. Crucially, adapting state-led food localization initiatives is imperative.