This study quantitatively assesses vulnerability to flood and saltwater intrusion risks in coastal Kim Son district, Ninh Binh province, Vietnam. As a low-lying region with a long land reclamation history and multi-layered dike system, it consistently faces climate change impacts. To provide a scientific basis for risk management and sustainable development, we integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and multi-source socio-economic survey data. A comprehensive indicator set, adapted from the IPCC/2014 framework (Expossure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity), was developed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to weight criteria like land cover, topographical elevation, population density, poverty rate, livelihood diversification, and housing quality. Results yielded a five-level vulnerability classification map, offering detailed spatial information and revealing distinct variations across the district’s sub-regions. Coastal communes like Kim Dong and Kim Hai exhibited high vulnerability due to low-lying topography, insufficient flood control, and challenging socio-economic conditions. The study recommends strengthening coastal protection, promoting livelihood diversification, enhancing infrastructure, and integrating vulnerability maps into spatial planning for sustainable development.

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Assessment of Vulnerability to Disaster Risks for Coastal Areas of Kim Son District, Ninh Binh

  • Hieu Tran,
  • Nga Duong,
  • Thai Tran,
  • Huong Le,
  • Nam Dao

摘要

This study quantitatively assesses vulnerability to flood and saltwater intrusion risks in coastal Kim Son district, Ninh Binh province, Vietnam. As a low-lying region with a long land reclamation history and multi-layered dike system, it consistently faces climate change impacts. To provide a scientific basis for risk management and sustainable development, we integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and multi-source socio-economic survey data. A comprehensive indicator set, adapted from the IPCC/2014 framework (Expossure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity), was developed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to weight criteria like land cover, topographical elevation, population density, poverty rate, livelihood diversification, and housing quality. Results yielded a five-level vulnerability classification map, offering detailed spatial information and revealing distinct variations across the district’s sub-regions. Coastal communes like Kim Dong and Kim Hai exhibited high vulnerability due to low-lying topography, insufficient flood control, and challenging socio-economic conditions. The study recommends strengthening coastal protection, promoting livelihood diversification, enhancing infrastructure, and integrating vulnerability maps into spatial planning for sustainable development.