This chapter establishes that long-term economic growth is the ultimate determinant of success in great power competition, a conclusion drawn from a historical analysis of seven major power rivalries since 1500. It develops a “growth-crisis” model to analyze the US-China competition, outlining four potential equilibria—win-win, US wins, China wins, and lose-lose—where the key to victory for either side lies in avoiding a growth-crisis while potentially inducing one in its opponent. The chapter meticulously details six potential crises China must avert—such as a Japan-type industrial stagnation or a Soviet-type systemic failure—and six parallel crises facing the United States, including social fracture and a dollar crisis. The analysis concludes that to prevent a large-scale military conflict and achieve a peaceful transition in the world order, China must simultaneously achieve three objectives: sustain robust economic growth by avoiding a Japan-type crisis, establish the renminbi as a convertible international currency, and maintain a military balance of power with the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.  A probability of war between US and China in their great power competition is calculated at the end of this chapter.