Tailoring Blood Glucose Forecasting: Optimizing Personalized Models for Daily Living Conditions
摘要
Accurate blood glucose predictions are crucial for the management of diabetic health. As such, effective management is required to prevent complications. This study proposes a personalized machine learning framework to improve the accuracy of blood glucose forecasting for both short-term and long-term intervals, which utilizes continuous glucose monitoring data. The research employs a sliding window approach and optimization of the hyperparameters using the Optuna framework. Four machine learning models were deployed in the study—convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory, artificial neural networks, and XGBoost. Recursive forecasting was implemented to predict blood glucose levels at multiple time points, ranging from 15 min to 2 h, with a particular focus on improving long-term forecasts. Previous research focused primarily on short-term predictions, leaving a gap in longer-term forecasting. Compared to existing work, XGBoost outperformed all models, achieving an RMSE of 7.47 mg/dL for the 30 min horizon and 17.11 mg/dL for the 120 min horizon—significant improvements over previous studies. This demonstrates the ability of the proposed framework to fill the long-term forecast gap, improving health management for diabetic care.