Adaptive Strategies for Drought Mitigation in the Malaprabha Sub-Basin: Analyzing Rainfall Trends Under a Changing Climate
摘要
This chapter analyzes drought trends in the Malaprabha sub-basin and proposes adaptive techniques to combat climate extremities. The Malaprabha River, crucial for agriculture and domestic use, faces significant challenges due to fluctuating rainfall and increasing drought. Using three decades (1994–2023) of precipitation data and statistical methods, the study identifies trends and suggests feasible solutions. The analysis reveals a downward trend in annual rainfall from 1994 to 2003 (correlation coefficient: −0.244), followed by stable but limited rainfall from 2004 to 2013 (correlation coefficient: 0.022), and an upward trend from 2014 to 2023 (correlation coefficient: 0.156). However, variability across individual years underscores the ongoing risk of localized droughts, which needs to be examined further. To address this, the sub-basin is divided into three rainfall zones: low (< 732.71 mm), moderate (732.71 mm to 819.15 mm), and high (> 819.15 mm), to analyze drought trends in these areas. Using 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) data, the study identifies significant spatial variability in drought conditions. The northern region shows near-normal conditions with occasional moderate dry spells, while the central and eastern regions experience more severe and frequent droughts. Time series analysis indicates substantial fluctuations in drought severity, with northern grids exhibiting relative stability and central/eastern grids showing higher variability. This study recommends micro-irrigation systems, as sprinkler (60–90%) and drip (75–95%) methods offer far higher efficiencies than traditional flow irrigation, thereby reducing water wastage and enhancing water productivity. Check dams, percolation tanks, and augmenting groundwater are proposed to enhance groundwater recharge and store water for dry periods.