Assessment of Spatiotemporal Variation of Vegetation and Its Relationship with Precipitation and Temperature in a Changing Climate in Nepal Mountain Ecosystems
摘要
This chapter examines vegetation dynamics and climate trends in Nepal’s Gandaki Province, highlighting implications for ecosystem-based resilience in Himalayan landscapes. Integrating satellite-derived NDVI, ERA5-Land climate data, and field-based forest biomass measurements, we identify pronounced seasonal differences in vegetation growth. Spring exhibits a strong greening signal, with NDVI increasing significantly at 0.0018 yr-1 (p 0.001), while summer shows only a modest, non-significant rise (0.0007 yr-1) despite notable warming (+0.032 °C yr-1; p 0.001) and a significant increase in precipitation. Autumn and the annual growing season also display significant greening, accompanied by warming and wetter conditions. Correlation analyses reveal a strong positive relationship between temperature and precipitation (r = 0.631; p < 0.001), whereas NDVI shows only weak associations with these climate drivers. This suggests that non-climatic factors such as community forestry initiatives, national conservation policies, and rural out-migration that facilitate regeneration can be primary drivers of vegetation recovery in parts of the province. Sustaining these positive trends requires integrated strategies, including climate-resilient afforestation using native and locally useful species combined with invasive-species control, strengthened community forest governance, incentive-driven conservation to promote human–nature coexistence, and science-based land-use planning. These approaches are essential for building ecological resilience and supporting livelihoods that depend on these ecosystems amid ongoing ecological and socio-economic change.