This study case employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict future trends for cultivated cropland, fertilizer consumption, and rice production. As China faces ongoing food security challenges, accurate predictions of rice production and resource use are essential for long-term planning. The ARIMA model analyzed past time series data from 2010 to 2023 and predictable trends up to 2035. The results indicated a predicted reduction of 2.0% in cropland and 55.2% in fertilizer consumption over the next 12 years. Despite these reductions, rice and are expected to increase by 11.4%, due to improvements in agricultural techniques and resource management. The study also utilized a multiple linear regression model to assess the relationships between cropland, fertilizer consumption, and rice production. The finding showed significant correlations with R2 values of 61 and 74% for respectively. These predictions offer valuable insights for policymakers and agricultural managers, enabling them to develop strategies that balance the need for increased crop yields with the sustainable use of land and resources.