The Saurashtra region in Gujarat, India, is increasingly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change, with this study focusing on the Machhu River basin. Utilizing integrated hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, the research employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate watershed hydrology from 2001 to 2020, calibrated and validated with historical river gauge data. Future flood scenarios were assessed using climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), reflecting a range of greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrological outputs, including peak flows and runoff, served as inputs for both 1D and 2D simulations with HEC-RAS models to generate high-resolution flood inundation maps. The findings indicate a significant increase in flood magnitude and extent, especially under high-emission scenarios (SSP585). This research underscores the escalating flood risk in the Machhu River basin, with flood maps highlighting vulnerable areas to inform effective flood risk management strategies. The insights gained are crucial for regional planners in developing adaptive measures to address the challenges posed by climate change-induced flooding in the Saurashtra region.

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Climate Change-Induced Flood Inundation Mapping Using H and H Models of Machhu River Basin

  • Foram Rana,
  • Suvarna Shah,
  • Hiteshri Shastri

摘要

The Saurashtra region in Gujarat, India, is increasingly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change, with this study focusing on the Machhu River basin. Utilizing integrated hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, the research employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate watershed hydrology from 2001 to 2020, calibrated and validated with historical river gauge data. Future flood scenarios were assessed using climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), reflecting a range of greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrological outputs, including peak flows and runoff, served as inputs for both 1D and 2D simulations with HEC-RAS models to generate high-resolution flood inundation maps. The findings indicate a significant increase in flood magnitude and extent, especially under high-emission scenarios (SSP585). This research underscores the escalating flood risk in the Machhu River basin, with flood maps highlighting vulnerable areas to inform effective flood risk management strategies. The insights gained are crucial for regional planners in developing adaptive measures to address the challenges posed by climate change-induced flooding in the Saurashtra region.