Geopolitical events such as wars, international tensions, global or local security issues, natural disasters (e.g., global warming), or political instability can have significant implications for a country’s socioeconomic development. These events, whether global or local, are closely related to a nation’s socioeconomic progress. However, the scientific literature has yet to extensively examine this relationship through the lens of socioeconomic indicators in emerging countries, particularly in Latin America. Thus, this study aimed to analyse the socioeconomic development of the six largest Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru) before and after the occurrence of a geopolitical event. We sought to answer the following question: How do geopolitical events influence the socioeconomic development of the largest Latin American economies? We used a multiple case study approach and applied RM-ANOVA, a statistical method for analysing within-subject data collected across multiple time points or conditions, commonly used in longitudinal studies. All the countries analysed experienced significant changes in their economic and social structures. However, the degree of impact and the distribution of benefits varied based on government capacity, the nature of the event, and the preexisting socioeconomic context. These findings suggest that a country’s ability to respond to geopolitical events may be closely linked to the strength of its institutions. An effective government response can reduce negative effects and enhance recovery.

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Socioeconomic Development in Latin American Countries: An Analysis Based on Geopolitical Events

  • Pedro dos Santos Portugal Júnior,
  • Rodrigo Franklin Frogeri,
  • Fabrício Pelloso Piurcosky,
  • Mario De Martino,
  • Sheldon William Silva

摘要

Geopolitical events such as wars, international tensions, global or local security issues, natural disasters (e.g., global warming), or political instability can have significant implications for a country’s socioeconomic development. These events, whether global or local, are closely related to a nation’s socioeconomic progress. However, the scientific literature has yet to extensively examine this relationship through the lens of socioeconomic indicators in emerging countries, particularly in Latin America. Thus, this study aimed to analyse the socioeconomic development of the six largest Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru) before and after the occurrence of a geopolitical event. We sought to answer the following question: How do geopolitical events influence the socioeconomic development of the largest Latin American economies? We used a multiple case study approach and applied RM-ANOVA, a statistical method for analysing within-subject data collected across multiple time points or conditions, commonly used in longitudinal studies. All the countries analysed experienced significant changes in their economic and social structures. However, the degree of impact and the distribution of benefits varied based on government capacity, the nature of the event, and the preexisting socioeconomic context. These findings suggest that a country’s ability to respond to geopolitical events may be closely linked to the strength of its institutions. An effective government response can reduce negative effects and enhance recovery.