Spatiotemporal Analysis and Forecasting of Climate Variables Along Indian Coasts: A Statistical Modeling Approach
摘要
Climate change stands as an overriding concern to the earth’s system. For a sustainable future, it is essential to consider each minute variation across the earth. Thus, it is important to understand the region’s spatiotemporal dynamics, trends, and forecasting behavior. The primary goal is to identify the characteristics of each parameter for further studies. The study mainly focuses on three aspects. The study mainly focuses on the spatiotemporal patterns of climatic variables (Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), surface temperature of land, and surface pressure) over 43 years, using geostatistical methods, assessing the historical trends of these with the Modified Mann–Kendall Test and forecasting the climate of Indian coastal states for the next 30 years using an Auto regression (AR) model. Geostatistical analysis indicates a rise in AOD over the northern parts of West Bengal. Over the past 43 years, surface temperatures have been notably higher along the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Odisha. Surface pressure peaks in regions of Gujarat as well as along the coastal borders of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The Modified Mann–Kendall Test highlights significant trends in both AOD (p-value 4.352e−14) and surface pressure (p-value 0.014), while the surface temperature of land (−0.002) exhibits no notable trends. Additionally, the autoregressive (AR) model exhibits an irregular trend. These results are vital for directing future research efforts.