This study investigates the impact of digital inclusive finance on economic growth (GDP) across 31 Chinese provinces, emphasizing the mediating role of industrial structural change. It further explores whether technological innovation moderates this relationship by differentiating the effects in high-tech and low-tech regions. To address potential endogeneity, the study employs the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), complemented by robustness and heterogeneity analyses. The findings reveal that digital inclusive finance positively influences GDP, primarily through the mechanism of industrial structural transformation. Mediation analysis confirms that without the contribution of structural change, the direct effect of digital inclusive finance on economic growth remains limited, underscoring the critical role of sectoral evolution in amplifying the benefits of digital financial inclusion.

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Digital Inclusive Finance and Economic Growth (GDP) via Industrial Structural Change: A System GMM Approach

  • Muhammad Atif Sattar,
  • Muhammad Fahad Sattar,
  • Umar Iqbal

摘要

This study investigates the impact of digital inclusive finance on economic growth (GDP) across 31 Chinese provinces, emphasizing the mediating role of industrial structural change. It further explores whether technological innovation moderates this relationship by differentiating the effects in high-tech and low-tech regions. To address potential endogeneity, the study employs the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), complemented by robustness and heterogeneity analyses. The findings reveal that digital inclusive finance positively influences GDP, primarily through the mechanism of industrial structural transformation. Mediation analysis confirms that without the contribution of structural change, the direct effect of digital inclusive finance on economic growth remains limited, underscoring the critical role of sectoral evolution in amplifying the benefits of digital financial inclusion.