The goal is to determine, for a given threshold of global mean temperature increase: • The maximum remaining amount of carbon that may still be emitted into the atmosphere—the so-called carbon budget—since carbon is hardly removed from the atmosphere. • The time remaining until this carbon budget is exhausted. Various scenarios of a continuously decreasing emission of greenhouse gases are analyzed for both of the above points. Data from June 2025 are presented for the avoidance probabilities of 17%, 33%, 50%, 67%, and 83% for the limit temperatures of 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, and 2.0 °C.

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Carbon budget for various scenarios

  • Albert Fässler

摘要

The goal is to determine, for a given threshold of global mean temperature increase: • The maximum remaining amount of carbon that may still be emitted into the atmosphere—the so-called carbon budget—since carbon is hardly removed from the atmosphere. • The time remaining until this carbon budget is exhausted. Various scenarios of a continuously decreasing emission of greenhouse gases are analyzed for both of the above points. Data from June 2025 are presented for the avoidance probabilities of 17%, 33%, 50%, 67%, and 83% for the limit temperatures of 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, and 2.0 °C.