This chapter deals with mechanisms of our brain that can unconsciously lead to wrong conclusions in trend analysis. They originate from complexity and simplification, overestimation of existing knowledge, basic rules of statistics, chance, and much more. As a trend analyst, one must be aware of such automatisms in order not to arrive at hasty, erroneous results.

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Excursus: Thinking Traps in Trend Analysis

  • Jörg Blechschmidt

摘要

This chapter deals with mechanisms of our brain that can unconsciously lead to wrong conclusions in trend analysis. They originate from complexity and simplification, overestimation of existing knowledge, basic rules of statistics, chance, and much more. As a trend analyst, one must be aware of such automatisms in order not to arrive at hasty, erroneous results.