This chapter explores how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) can contribute to feasibility assessments of climate goals, building on the conceptual groundwork established in earlier chapters. It argues that feasibility judgments require considering all relevant constraints simultaneously and accounting for complex, dynamic pathways of change – strengths inherent to IAMs. Solvable scenarios within IAMs can serve as evidence for the feasibility of specific climate goals, but such evidential claims depend on context-sensitive background assumptions. The chapter critically examines current methods of evaluating these assumptions, arguing that existing practices of model evaluation in IAMs fall short. Empirical testing approaches, including “appeals to the past,” fail to provide robust support due to high uncertainty and misaligned epistemic aims. The chapter critiques one recent empirical framework for assessing feasibility with IAMs (Brutschin et al., 2021) in more detail, arguing that it does not adequately address these issues. The chapter argues that feasibility assessment must pay closer attention to value judgments. Bringing in the perspective of values in science will provide a more solid and transparent ground for assessing feasibility with IAMs.

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Assessing Feasibility with IAMs

  • Simon Hollnaicher

摘要

This chapter explores how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) can contribute to feasibility assessments of climate goals, building on the conceptual groundwork established in earlier chapters. It argues that feasibility judgments require considering all relevant constraints simultaneously and accounting for complex, dynamic pathways of change – strengths inherent to IAMs. Solvable scenarios within IAMs can serve as evidence for the feasibility of specific climate goals, but such evidential claims depend on context-sensitive background assumptions. The chapter critically examines current methods of evaluating these assumptions, arguing that existing practices of model evaluation in IAMs fall short. Empirical testing approaches, including “appeals to the past,” fail to provide robust support due to high uncertainty and misaligned epistemic aims. The chapter critiques one recent empirical framework for assessing feasibility with IAMs (Brutschin et al., 2021) in more detail, arguing that it does not adequately address these issues. The chapter argues that feasibility assessment must pay closer attention to value judgments. Bringing in the perspective of values in science will provide a more solid and transparent ground for assessing feasibility with IAMs.