Due to a rising focus on sustainability the importance of wear performance of tires is drastically increasing. Every on-vehicle wear test either for OEM or replacement tire performance evaluation has to take into account real market conditions and applications. Besides the absolute mileage in km, the abrasion rate or mass loss in mg/km/ton does reflect the amount of rubber emitted into the environment. In order to define meaningful thresholds for the upcoming EU Wear rate regulation, it is of utmost importance to define the best market-relevant controlled outdoor tire road wear test. Real market data derived from hundreds of retailer shops within Germany for estimated mileage in km lead to the known Mileage distribution. Mileage data for different tire lines in the field are compared with predictions that are based on simulation and testing. Finally, a prediction of mileage and mass loss for a large range of passenger car tires as trend over years is shown.