Forecasting
摘要
For forecasting future values of a time series we imagine that the time series is generated by a (possibly noisy) deterministic process such as a Mealy or a Moore machine. This leads to recurrent or auto-regressive models. Building forecasting models is essentially a regression task. The training data sets for forecasting models are generated by finite unfolding in time. Examples for linear forecasting models are auto-regressive models (AR) and generalized AR models with moving average (ARMA), with integral terms (ARIMA), or with local regression (ARMAX). Examples for nonlinear forecasting models are recurrent neural networks. ChatGPT and other generative AI models based on transformer architectures allow forecasting of text data.