Predicting the Propagation of Bushfires Using Aerial and Ground Observation: Bushfire Control in Côte d’ivoire
摘要
We present an operational model for predicting the spread of bushfires. Using the geographic coordinates of the fire's origin, a vegetation map, wind speed data and the topography of the terrain, the model predicts in real time the rate of fire spread, its perimeter and the area affected by the fire. This data can be obtained from aerial photography and/or field measurements. The fire contour is modelled as a line that separates burned from unburned fuel and moves across the surface. The ability of the model to predict fire spread was evaluated using experiments conducted in the Lamto Reserve. Good agreement was found between the experimental data and the predictions of the fire contour and areas affected. The simulation time is ten times shorter than the actual fire time. The model will be integrated into a simulator that will serve as a decision-making tool for planning and fighting vegetation fires.