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In this paper, we propose a novel fractional-order SEIAR (Susceptible, Exposed, Symptomatic-Infectious, Asymptomatic-Infectious, Recovered) system for COVID-19 transmission that captures both symptomatic and asymptomatic pathways under memory-dependent dynamics. The model incorporates the Caputo fractional derivative to reflect non-local effects and long-term memory in the epidemic process. To realistically describe transmission saturation due to behavioral changes and healthcare limitations, we utilize nonlinear incidence functions of Crowley-Martin type. A key feature of the model is the explicit differentiation between symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious individuals, each governed by distinct progression and recovery rates. We show the presence of asymptomatic carriers substantially increases the disease burden, highlighting their critical role in disease persistence. Our findings underscore the effectiveness of the fractional-order system in revealing complex dynamics and inform strategies for mitigating pandemic with latent and asymptomatic transmission features, such as COVID-19.

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Modeling Asymptomatic Spread in COVID-19 with a Fractional-Order SEIAR System Incorporating Saturated Incidence

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Satyajit Saha,
  • Rakesh Kumar,
  • Krishna Pada Das

摘要

In this paper, we propose a novel fractional-order SEIAR (Susceptible, Exposed, Symptomatic-Infectious, Asymptomatic-Infectious, Recovered) system for COVID-19 transmission that captures both symptomatic and asymptomatic pathways under memory-dependent dynamics. The model incorporates the Caputo fractional derivative to reflect non-local effects and long-term memory in the epidemic process. To realistically describe transmission saturation due to behavioral changes and healthcare limitations, we utilize nonlinear incidence functions of Crowley-Martin type. A key feature of the model is the explicit differentiation between symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious individuals, each governed by distinct progression and recovery rates. We show the presence of asymptomatic carriers substantially increases the disease burden, highlighting their critical role in disease persistence. Our findings underscore the effectiveness of the fractional-order system in revealing complex dynamics and inform strategies for mitigating pandemic with latent and asymptomatic transmission features, such as COVID-19.