Predicting behavior or future events has become normal in modernity and is practiced in most sciences and all spheres of life. Anticipating and predicting risk is a given process in various professions, enabling the development of proactive strategies and preventing possible future crises. In law enforcement, predictive policing methods involve forecasting future crimes and identifying crime hot spots to inform effective intervention planning. Police have mapped crime locations and subjectively have identified where the most crimes (“hot spots”) in their jurisdictions have been committed to help devise a detailed strategy and police deployment. The hot spot areas are further analyzed by both location and time of occurrence. Although conventional approaches are still used in modern times, specialized cutting-edge mathematical computer software is preferred for an array of predictive functions and analysis. This chapter will examine these developments as they have transpired in South Africa.

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The Use of Technology to Evaluate Crime Trends and Predict Criminal Incidents in South Africa

  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout,
  • Annalise Kempen

摘要

Predicting behavior or future events has become normal in modernity and is practiced in most sciences and all spheres of life. Anticipating and predicting risk is a given process in various professions, enabling the development of proactive strategies and preventing possible future crises. In law enforcement, predictive policing methods involve forecasting future crimes and identifying crime hot spots to inform effective intervention planning. Police have mapped crime locations and subjectively have identified where the most crimes (“hot spots”) in their jurisdictions have been committed to help devise a detailed strategy and police deployment. The hot spot areas are further analyzed by both location and time of occurrence. Although conventional approaches are still used in modern times, specialized cutting-edge mathematical computer software is preferred for an array of predictive functions and analysis. This chapter will examine these developments as they have transpired in South Africa.