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This study investigates trend changes of station-based precipitation and satellite-based Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation datasets over Ferghana valley in the period of 1994–2022. Monthly and annual total precipitation values of 9 meteorological (Andijan, Buz, Ferghana, Jalalabad, Kokand, Pop, Kara Su, Ulugnar, Namangan) stations and CHIRPS dataset were checked by using Mann-Kendall trend and Sen’s Slope estimator tests. According to results, monthly precipitation values at Andijan, Kokand, and Ulugnar stations located in the eastern part of the valley significantly decreased at the 95% confidence level constituting Z = –2.587, Z = –2.404, and − 2.485, respectively. Apart from monthly values, annual total precipitation showed significant decreasing trend only at Andijan station at the 95% confidence level with Z = –2.232. Spatiotemporal change of trend Z value showed significant decreasing trend in north-west and north-east parts of valley, whereas middle part of the valley which is urban area showed insignificant change. According to Sen’s slope estimator test, magnitude of precipitation showed significant decrease from 0.005 mm/year at Kokand station to 0.01 mm/year at Andijan station. Precipitation at other stations showed insignificant change during the study period.

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Spatiotemporal Trend Change of Precipitation in Ferghana Valley, Central Asia

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Sardor Khamidov,
  • Bakhtiyor Pulatov,
  • Khairullo Gapporov,
  • Luqmon Samiev,
  • Alim Pulatov

摘要

This study investigates trend changes of station-based precipitation and satellite-based Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation datasets over Ferghana valley in the period of 1994–2022. Monthly and annual total precipitation values of 9 meteorological (Andijan, Buz, Ferghana, Jalalabad, Kokand, Pop, Kara Su, Ulugnar, Namangan) stations and CHIRPS dataset were checked by using Mann-Kendall trend and Sen’s Slope estimator tests. According to results, monthly precipitation values at Andijan, Kokand, and Ulugnar stations located in the eastern part of the valley significantly decreased at the 95% confidence level constituting Z = –2.587, Z = –2.404, and − 2.485, respectively. Apart from monthly values, annual total precipitation showed significant decreasing trend only at Andijan station at the 95% confidence level with Z = –2.232. Spatiotemporal change of trend Z value showed significant decreasing trend in north-west and north-east parts of valley, whereas middle part of the valley which is urban area showed insignificant change. According to Sen’s slope estimator test, magnitude of precipitation showed significant decrease from 0.005 mm/year at Kokand station to 0.01 mm/year at Andijan station. Precipitation at other stations showed insignificant change during the study period.