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The development of vector-borne diseases is closely related to temperature and moisture. In Tunisia, zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) emerged and spread in many parts including Sidi Bouzid. The objectives of our study were to describe climatic conditions and to investigate their relationship with ZCL incidence in Sidi Bouzid. We used data on ZCL from the surveillance system of communicable diseases for the governorate of Sidi Bouzid and we collected daily ambient air temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed from 1963 to 2016. We performed a generalized additive model to assess the relationship between the emergence and the incidence trend of ZCl and climate variables. Annual cumulative rainfall decreased slightly between 1963 and 2016. On the other hand, the maximum and minimum yearly average temperatures clearly increased. The average daily maximum temperature increased by 0.04 °C/year. The increases in monthly cumulative rainfall and in mean temperature and relative humidity 4 months ago and were linked to the increase of ZCL cases. High levels of temperatures, humidity and rainfall caused the emergence and increased incidence of ZCL in Tunisia. Therefore, authorities should work on climate change adaptation program including early warning system implementation.

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The Effect of Climate Change on the Emergence and the Increase in the Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Sidi Bouzid, Central Tunisia

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Hedia Bellali,
  • Mohamed Taha Khoufi,
  • Farah Saffar,
  • Khouloud Talmoudi,
  • Mohamed Kouni Chahed

摘要

The development of vector-borne diseases is closely related to temperature and moisture. In Tunisia, zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) emerged and spread in many parts including Sidi Bouzid. The objectives of our study were to describe climatic conditions and to investigate their relationship with ZCL incidence in Sidi Bouzid. We used data on ZCL from the surveillance system of communicable diseases for the governorate of Sidi Bouzid and we collected daily ambient air temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed from 1963 to 2016. We performed a generalized additive model to assess the relationship between the emergence and the incidence trend of ZCl and climate variables. Annual cumulative rainfall decreased slightly between 1963 and 2016. On the other hand, the maximum and minimum yearly average temperatures clearly increased. The average daily maximum temperature increased by 0.04 °C/year. The increases in monthly cumulative rainfall and in mean temperature and relative humidity 4 months ago and were linked to the increase of ZCL cases. High levels of temperatures, humidity and rainfall caused the emergence and increased incidence of ZCL in Tunisia. Therefore, authorities should work on climate change adaptation program including early warning system implementation.