Energy Relations of the European Union and the United States of America During the Second Trump Administration: New Energy (Inter)Dependence?
摘要
This paper examines the subject of EU-US energy relations during the second Trump administration, with a particular focus on understanding their nature. A reflection of a broader transatlantic alignment in the energy sector should have contributed to a less conflict-prone environment in the context of the regional energy crisis. Additionally, friendshoring is usually expected to grant more autonomous foreign energy policy, in accordance with the de-risking energy strategy. Nevertheless, as we will argue in this paper, the relations seem to follow an old logic, rendering characteristic asymmetric energy (inter)dependence, with potential energy influence for the exporter, as well as competitive and/or conflictual behaviour. The classification of energy relations in this paper is based on the neorealist approach to energy relations, including interdependence. Accordingly, the supply security of nations without indigenous energy resources is critical for their national security, which results in the EU resorting to familiar patterns of achieving energy security, albeit with different partners. In addition, the new demand security paradigm in the US, coupled with the Trump administration’s proactive foreign energy policy, contributes to the realization of a more traditional energy interdependence with the EU, with potential for using the energy power in achieving other foreign policy goals. The paper employs qualitative methodology, primarily a case study but entails both quantitative and qualitative within-case evidence.