Assessing Earthquake Risk in Istanbul Metropolitan Area: A Multi-scenario Based Analysis
摘要
In urban areas characterized by high seismic hazard and a vulnerable built environment, risk assessment studies serve as a critical tool to understand the expected losses and damages, as well as for developing effective risk mitigation strategies. This study conducts a series of scenario-based impact analyses for the Istanbul metropolitan area, considering four distinct rupture scenarios. The analyses utilize a set of earthquake ruptures and vulnerability models, integrated with a newly developed exposure model specific to the region. The outcomes are evaluated in terms of various risk metrics, such as economic losses and the number of completely damaged buildings. These results are systematically compared across scenarios and against prior risk assessment studies conducted for Istanbul. The analyses are performed using the OpenQuake Engine, which is an open-source platform developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation for hazard and risk calculations. This study aims to provide up-to-date and comprehensive risk information for Istanbul and it offers valuable insights for prioritizing risk mitigation efforts and enhancing urban resilience in one of the world’s most seismically active metropolitan areas.