The well-studied seismic gap on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in the Marmara Sea introduces high probabilities of occurrences of severe/damaging earthquakes. The studies for the assessment of earthquake risk have been mainly focused on Istanbul, not only as the heart of the Marmara Region but also of the entire country. This study aims to develop a holistic earthquake loss and risk mitigation model at a regional scale for the social and physical elements at risk. For this purpose, innovative data compilation methods (e.g., AI-based) are utilized, and quantitative and qualitative earthquake risk analysis methodologies are employed in an integrated manner. The study's outputs, presented online via a GIS-based web platform, are expected to serve as a knowledge basis for preventing/reducing the effects of physical, economic, social, and environmental damages and losses caused by earthquakes, and for creating new earthquake-resilient living environments.

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A Holistic Earthquake Risk Model and Urban Resilience Strategies for the Marmara Region Based on Innovative Data Generation Methods

  • Ufuk Hancılar,
  • Emin Y. Menteşe,
  • Karin Şeşetyan,
  • Fatma S. Malcıoğlu,
  • Hakan Süleyman,
  • Erdem Özer,
  • Eser Çaktı

摘要

The well-studied seismic gap on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in the Marmara Sea introduces high probabilities of occurrences of severe/damaging earthquakes. The studies for the assessment of earthquake risk have been mainly focused on Istanbul, not only as the heart of the Marmara Region but also of the entire country. This study aims to develop a holistic earthquake loss and risk mitigation model at a regional scale for the social and physical elements at risk. For this purpose, innovative data compilation methods (e.g., AI-based) are utilized, and quantitative and qualitative earthquake risk analysis methodologies are employed in an integrated manner. The study's outputs, presented online via a GIS-based web platform, are expected to serve as a knowledge basis for preventing/reducing the effects of physical, economic, social, and environmental damages and losses caused by earthquakes, and for creating new earthquake-resilient living environments.