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This study provides a comprehensive assessment of drought dynamics and vegetation stress across the Levant (Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria) from 1958 to 2024, integrating long-term meteorological records, remote sensing products, and rigorous statistical trend analyses. Meteorological drought was quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple timescales and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), while vegetation health was evaluated through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) derived from satellite observations. CRU TS climate data were validated against 2637 in situ stations, demonstrating strong agreement with observed precipitation and temperature (r > 0.80) and low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. Results indicate a statistically significant intensification of drought since the early 2000s, with pronounced hotspots in eastern and northeastern Syria, northern and western Jordan, and the West Bank. Short- to medium-term drought indices (SPEI-3, SPEI-6) showed the strongest correlations with vegetation health, whereas long-term metrics captured broader hydro-climatic deficits but exhibited weaker coupling with vegetation responses. Persistent VHI hotspots highlight chronic vegetation vulnerability in central-eastern Syria and northern Jordan. The findings emphasize the compounding effects of rising temperatures, declining precipitation, and socio-political fragility in amplifying drought impacts, underscoring the urgent need for integrated adaptation strategies, including enhanced seasonal forecasting, drought-resilient agricultural practices, and cooperative transboundary water management.

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Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Intensification of Drought in the Levant: Vegetation Response Across the Middle East

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Shifa Mathbout,
  • George Boustras,
  • Pierantonios Papazoglou

摘要

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of drought dynamics and vegetation stress across the Levant (Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria) from 1958 to 2024, integrating long-term meteorological records, remote sensing products, and rigorous statistical trend analyses. Meteorological drought was quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple timescales and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), while vegetation health was evaluated through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) derived from satellite observations. CRU TS climate data were validated against 2637 in situ stations, demonstrating strong agreement with observed precipitation and temperature (r > 0.80) and low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. Results indicate a statistically significant intensification of drought since the early 2000s, with pronounced hotspots in eastern and northeastern Syria, northern and western Jordan, and the West Bank. Short- to medium-term drought indices (SPEI-3, SPEI-6) showed the strongest correlations with vegetation health, whereas long-term metrics captured broader hydro-climatic deficits but exhibited weaker coupling with vegetation responses. Persistent VHI hotspots highlight chronic vegetation vulnerability in central-eastern Syria and northern Jordan. The findings emphasize the compounding effects of rising temperatures, declining precipitation, and socio-political fragility in amplifying drought impacts, underscoring the urgent need for integrated adaptation strategies, including enhanced seasonal forecasting, drought-resilient agricultural practices, and cooperative transboundary water management.