Assessing Climate Vulnerability, the Impacts of Future Climate Scenarios and Coastal Resilience in the Tuban Delta, Yemen
摘要
Climate change threatens all sort of lief in Yemen an its socioeconomic activities. MRI-ESM2-0 climate model and QGIS have been utilized to analyze future cliate impacts under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5). The Tuban Delta was divided into three regions Upper and middle and lower regions. The results reveal that the three regions are vulnerable to drought and flooding, with projections indicating extreme rainfall could lead to flooding between 2060 and 2063 under SSP3 and between 2074 and 2076 under SSP5, while drought conditions may occur between 2029 and 2034 and 2069 and 2072. The Lower Region is particularly susceptible to climate change impacts, facing dual threats from sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, which will adversely affect water supply systems and coastal infrastructure. The outcomes reveal the need for climate actions to mitigate saltwater intrusion in the lower region. Additionally, establishing an early warning system at the head of the Tuban Delta (Dukiem) is crucial for alerting residents to potential flooding dangers when water flow exceeds 150 m3/s. While Yemen has both a water law and a water policy, these frameworks remain inactive and have failed to effectively address the challenges in the water sector. Therefore, it is essential to develop new versions of these policies that focus on climate-related hazards, improve water management strategies, and clearly define roles and responsibilities based on Integrated Water Resources Management principles to conserve natural resources and enhance human welfare.