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This article analyzes the ambivalent role of artificial intelligence (AI), both as a product and accelerator of the knowledge economy, in the development of the global green bond market. After reviewing the literature showing how AI improves the quality of extra-financial data, the measurement of climate risks, and the efficiency of capital allocation, we empirically quantify its impact on green bond issuance. Using quarterly data from 2012–2021, we estimate an ARDL model where the overall volume of green bond issuance (GBVSA) is explained by global venture capital investments dedicated to AI and sustainability (DGVIA). The results reveal a two-stage dynamic: i) in the short term, an SVI shock significantly reduces GBVSA issuance in the current quarter (transitory substitution effect), before becoming positively significant over 1 to 3 quarters (catch-up effect linked to gains in information and credibility); ii) in the long term, the relationship is negative and significant (a USD 1 billion increase in DIA is associated with a decrease of approximately USD 2.91 billion in GBTSA), while the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium is slow (ECT =  −0.043991, ≈4.4% per quarter). We derive hybrid policy recommendations that align market instruments (green bonds), R&D support, and ESG data governance in order to transform competition into complementarity and accelerate a resilient transition.

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The Knowledge Economy and Sustainable Finance: How AI is Boosting the Green Bond Market for a Resilient Economy

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Badrddine Essalihi,
  • Mohamed Hassnaoui,
  • Zouhair Lakhyar

摘要

This article analyzes the ambivalent role of artificial intelligence (AI), both as a product and accelerator of the knowledge economy, in the development of the global green bond market. After reviewing the literature showing how AI improves the quality of extra-financial data, the measurement of climate risks, and the efficiency of capital allocation, we empirically quantify its impact on green bond issuance. Using quarterly data from 2012–2021, we estimate an ARDL model where the overall volume of green bond issuance (GBVSA) is explained by global venture capital investments dedicated to AI and sustainability (DGVIA). The results reveal a two-stage dynamic: i) in the short term, an SVI shock significantly reduces GBVSA issuance in the current quarter (transitory substitution effect), before becoming positively significant over 1 to 3 quarters (catch-up effect linked to gains in information and credibility); ii) in the long term, the relationship is negative and significant (a USD 1 billion increase in DIA is associated with a decrease of approximately USD 2.91 billion in GBTSA), while the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium is slow (ECT =  −0.043991, ≈4.4% per quarter). We derive hybrid policy recommendations that align market instruments (green bonds), R&D support, and ESG data governance in order to transform competition into complementarity and accelerate a resilient transition.