An abrupt-sunlight-reduction scenario caused by a nuclear winter would cause such extreme climatic alterations that would cause a severe drop in crop yields, jeopardizing food supply on a global scale. In such a catastrophe, resilient food solutions should be put into action to prevent mass starvation. This work analyses the potential of cropland area expansion to selected land types as a resilient food system, using a global gridded crop model to simulate nuclear winter conditions and assess how much area could be converted into cropland. The model showed that approximately 500 million hectares would be suitable for this purpose. The rate of cropland expansion and number of people fed is dependent on equipment distribution, so different scenarios of equipment-trading were explored: the global-equipment-trading scenario, where the area is converted to cropland in a year, feeding approximately 40% of the global population by the end of the first year of the catastrophe; the no-equipment-trade scenario, where 7 years are required to convert 86% of the area into cropland, feeding approximately a fifth of the global population by the end of the first year; and the export-pool-equipment-trade scenario, where all the area is converted in 7 years by providing extra equipment to selected countries, feeding approximately 30% of the global population of people by the end of the first year. This would prevent the hunt of wild animals for consumption, which coupled with the sparing old-growth forests, would have minimal impact on biodiversity.

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Expansion of Cropland Area as a Food-Providing System in Case of an Abrupt-Sunlight-Reduction Event

  • Luisa L. Monteiro,
  • Michael Hinge,
  • Morgan Rivers,
  • Simon Blouin,
  • Jacobus Daniel van der Walt,
  • David Denkenberger

摘要

An abrupt-sunlight-reduction scenario caused by a nuclear winter would cause such extreme climatic alterations that would cause a severe drop in crop yields, jeopardizing food supply on a global scale. In such a catastrophe, resilient food solutions should be put into action to prevent mass starvation. This work analyses the potential of cropland area expansion to selected land types as a resilient food system, using a global gridded crop model to simulate nuclear winter conditions and assess how much area could be converted into cropland. The model showed that approximately 500 million hectares would be suitable for this purpose. The rate of cropland expansion and number of people fed is dependent on equipment distribution, so different scenarios of equipment-trading were explored: the global-equipment-trading scenario, where the area is converted to cropland in a year, feeding approximately 40% of the global population by the end of the first year of the catastrophe; the no-equipment-trade scenario, where 7 years are required to convert 86% of the area into cropland, feeding approximately a fifth of the global population by the end of the first year; and the export-pool-equipment-trade scenario, where all the area is converted in 7 years by providing extra equipment to selected countries, feeding approximately 30% of the global population of people by the end of the first year. This would prevent the hunt of wild animals for consumption, which coupled with the sparing old-growth forests, would have minimal impact on biodiversity.