Climate Change Implications and Adaptation Solutions
摘要
The geographic distributionGeographic distribution of red spruce (Picea rubens)Red spruce () has shifted over evolutionary time in response to climate changesClimate change. In the central and southern Appalachians, red spruceRed spruce () currently is restricted mainly to elevations above 1,000 m and 1,600 m (3,280 ft and 5,250 ft) respectively, where suitable climatic conditions are most prevalent. There is concern that rapid contemporary climate changeClimate change will substantially decrease environmental suitability for red spruceRed spruce () in the central and southern Appalachians. In addition, given the fragmentation of red spruceRed spruce () stands in the southern portion of its range, and the current emphasis on restoration practices to reverse impacts associated with land-use change and other drivers of population decline in the region, the question of how anthropogenic climate changeClimate change will impact red spruceRed spruce () has taken on immediate importance. Nevertheless, how red spruceRed spruce () has and will respond to climate changeClimate change has long been a topic of both basic and applied research and across a range of disciplines spanning paleoecology, autecology, modeling, physiologyPhysiology, and geneticsGenetics. In this chapter, we summarize the current state of the science from these various perspectives and conclude with what this body of knowledge suggests about the future of red spruceRed spruce () in the central and southern Appalachians. We place particular emphasis on (i) red spruceRed spruce ()’s physiological relationships with temperatureTemperature, moisture, and light, (ii) how climate changesClimate change influenced historical shifts in its geographic distributionGeographic distribution, and (iii) its potential responses to rapid contemporary climate changesClimate change, including empirical studies that elucidate the importance of local adaptation to climate and modeling studies that project potential geographic distributionGeographic distribution changes. Our synthesis suggests that red spruceRed spruce () is a particularly vulnerable tree species to warming in the central and southern Appalachians, but that the species exhibits geneticGenetics adaptations associated with different climate conditions. Proactive management and restoration efforts that consider assisted gene flow within regions and increasing diversityDiversity within populations could increase the probability of long-term persistence of red spruceRed spruce () in the central and southern Appalachians.