This study aims to examine the determinants of the ecological transition in road transport, with a particular focus on the factors influencing electric vehicles (EVs) sales. This timely study seeks to address the gap in the existing literature concerning the main drivers of green mobility. The research method employs a decision tree framework to analyze and classify the most influential variables shaping EV adoption across leading countries (China, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Norway). The results of this study identify four principal determinants of EV sales: (i) methane emissions (kilotons of CO2 equivalent), (ii) renewable energy consumption (percentage of total final energy consumption), (iii) PM2.5 air pollution (mean annual exposure in micrograms per cubic meter), and (iv) urban population. The findings further show that PM2.5 air pollution is the most significant determinant, with a negative correlation, indicating that as air pollution levels rise, EV sales tend to decline. This study is significant as it suggests that consumers in more polluted environments may turn to alternative renewable energy solutions, as EVs remain relatively expensive and face technical challenges. Nevertheless, this should not overshadow the increasing global momentum toward electric mobility and green transport solutions. The ecological transition in the transport sector is not only desirable but also essential for sustainable development, both now and in the future.

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The Main Determinants of the Ecological Transition in Road Transport in Leading Countries: Analysis Using the Decision Tree Technique

  • Kaies Samet,
  • Mohamed Lahby

摘要

This study aims to examine the determinants of the ecological transition in road transport, with a particular focus on the factors influencing electric vehicles (EVs) sales. This timely study seeks to address the gap in the existing literature concerning the main drivers of green mobility. The research method employs a decision tree framework to analyze and classify the most influential variables shaping EV adoption across leading countries (China, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Norway). The results of this study identify four principal determinants of EV sales: (i) methane emissions (kilotons of CO2 equivalent), (ii) renewable energy consumption (percentage of total final energy consumption), (iii) PM2.5 air pollution (mean annual exposure in micrograms per cubic meter), and (iv) urban population. The findings further show that PM2.5 air pollution is the most significant determinant, with a negative correlation, indicating that as air pollution levels rise, EV sales tend to decline. This study is significant as it suggests that consumers in more polluted environments may turn to alternative renewable energy solutions, as EVs remain relatively expensive and face technical challenges. Nevertheless, this should not overshadow the increasing global momentum toward electric mobility and green transport solutions. The ecological transition in the transport sector is not only desirable but also essential for sustainable development, both now and in the future.