The railway system operation process is associated with various risks that can lead to significant disruptions and losses. Effective risk management is a crucial issue to ensure the safety and reliability of railway systems, but in practice it is focused on large scale events. The advantages of the risk assessment techniques are not used for timetable and train evaluation to find and remove weak links from the punctuality point of view. Many techniques are available for evaluating the timetable and predicting secondary delays. But they have important disadvantages like time consuming simulation experiments, the need of powerful computers, and a lot of energy. In terms of the mentioned issues it seems to be rational to use risk assessment techniques for prediction of possible consequences and searching as well as removing week links. Therefore the aim of the paper is to propose a concept for risk assessment approaches that deal with delay propagation to evaluate timetables and the scheduled trains. The presented Traffic Risk concept will bridge this gap. The paper starts with a literature search to confirm the mentioned gap. Then the overall concept, as well as the key components and their estimation, is presented. The paper ends with conclusions.

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The Concept of Traffic Risk as a Tool for Railway Timetable Evaluation

  • Franciszek J. Restel

摘要

The railway system operation process is associated with various risks that can lead to significant disruptions and losses. Effective risk management is a crucial issue to ensure the safety and reliability of railway systems, but in practice it is focused on large scale events. The advantages of the risk assessment techniques are not used for timetable and train evaluation to find and remove weak links from the punctuality point of view. Many techniques are available for evaluating the timetable and predicting secondary delays. But they have important disadvantages like time consuming simulation experiments, the need of powerful computers, and a lot of energy. In terms of the mentioned issues it seems to be rational to use risk assessment techniques for prediction of possible consequences and searching as well as removing week links. Therefore the aim of the paper is to propose a concept for risk assessment approaches that deal with delay propagation to evaluate timetables and the scheduled trains. The presented Traffic Risk concept will bridge this gap. The paper starts with a literature search to confirm the mentioned gap. Then the overall concept, as well as the key components and their estimation, is presented. The paper ends with conclusions.