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The full-scale blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports and the escalation of hybrid threats since 2022 have increased the strategic importance of the Lithuania–Ukraine intermodal corridor as a secure gateway to EU markets. This study aims to quantitatively assess the corridor’s resilience, economic feasibility, and environmental performance under hybrid threat scenarios by comparing baseline and upgraded configurations, with a focus on Variable Gauge Axle (VGA) integration. A discrete-event simulation model (AnyLogic, 365-day horizon, 100 replications) evaluated four operational scenarios—normal, GNSS jamming, sabotage, and combined attacks—using performance indicators weighted via Shannon Entropy and CRITIC, with final ranking through TOPSIS. Results show that the advanced configuration Bv (VGA at Yahodyn, full 1435 mm gauge to Klaipėda) shortens transit time by 23%, increases the Network Robustness Index by 0.26 under combined attacks, achieves a ∆NPV/CAPEX ratio of +0.48 with €22–35 million investment, and reduces CO2 emissions by 0.19 kg/t·km. Hybrid-related annual losses decrease by 66% compared to the current upgraded route Av. These findings demonstrate that targeted VGA deployment can transform the traditional gauge break from a bottleneck into a resilience enabler, supporting eligibility for EU Connecting Europe Facility – Military Mobility and Green Deal financing.

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Prospects for the Development of Intermodal Logistics Between Lithuania and Ukraine Under Hybrid Threats

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Liudmyla Maliuta,
  • Vitalii Rudan,
  • Liliya Yakymyshyn,
  • Volodymyr Falovych

摘要

The full-scale blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports and the escalation of hybrid threats since 2022 have increased the strategic importance of the Lithuania–Ukraine intermodal corridor as a secure gateway to EU markets. This study aims to quantitatively assess the corridor’s resilience, economic feasibility, and environmental performance under hybrid threat scenarios by comparing baseline and upgraded configurations, with a focus on Variable Gauge Axle (VGA) integration. A discrete-event simulation model (AnyLogic, 365-day horizon, 100 replications) evaluated four operational scenarios—normal, GNSS jamming, sabotage, and combined attacks—using performance indicators weighted via Shannon Entropy and CRITIC, with final ranking through TOPSIS. Results show that the advanced configuration Bv (VGA at Yahodyn, full 1435 mm gauge to Klaipėda) shortens transit time by 23%, increases the Network Robustness Index by 0.26 under combined attacks, achieves a ∆NPV/CAPEX ratio of +0.48 with €22–35 million investment, and reduces CO2 emissions by 0.19 kg/t·km. Hybrid-related annual losses decrease by 66% compared to the current upgraded route Av. These findings demonstrate that targeted VGA deployment can transform the traditional gauge break from a bottleneck into a resilience enabler, supporting eligibility for EU Connecting Europe Facility – Military Mobility and Green Deal financing.