This study presents a new regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) approach that combines kriging with a parameter regression technique (PRT) framework, using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The method relies on spatial correlations between catchments to predict GEV parameters (location, scale, and shape). This study uses data from 88 gauged catchments in New South Wales (NSW) and flood quantiles across six annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), (50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1%) are considered. A leave one out validation technique is used to assess the model’s performance, and evaluation statistics are employed to assess its accuracy. The findings highlight the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating GEV distribution with geostatistical methods into RFFA. The results show that the kriging-PRT method has an absolute median relative error (median REr%) values ranging from 35% to 43% across different AEPs. These findings are consistent with other RFFA studies, confirming the reliability of kriging-based approaches in RFFA.

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Kriging of Generalised Extreme Value Distribution Parameters for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in New South Wales

  • Laura Rima,
  • Khaled Haddad,
  • Ataur Rahman

摘要

This study presents a new regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) approach that combines kriging with a parameter regression technique (PRT) framework, using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The method relies on spatial correlations between catchments to predict GEV parameters (location, scale, and shape). This study uses data from 88 gauged catchments in New South Wales (NSW) and flood quantiles across six annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), (50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1%) are considered. A leave one out validation technique is used to assess the model’s performance, and evaluation statistics are employed to assess its accuracy. The findings highlight the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating GEV distribution with geostatistical methods into RFFA. The results show that the kriging-PRT method has an absolute median relative error (median REr%) values ranging from 35% to 43% across different AEPs. These findings are consistent with other RFFA studies, confirming the reliability of kriging-based approaches in RFFA.