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The coastal areas of Bangladesh are facing a significant increase in salinity intrusion due to climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR) and the decrease in transboundary flow. The upstream flow from the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers and the incoming tide from the downstream determine the level of salinity intrusion. The study investigates the salinity intrusion in the coastal zone of Bangladesh for SSP5–8.5 climate change scenario and how it affects the major river salinity in the Southwestern Districts of Bangladesh in terms of freshwater availability considerations. The Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) developed the calibrated Southwest Regional Model (SWRM) to predict river salinity in South-West and South-Central regions of Bangladesh. The SWRM is used to project the salinity ingress for the sea level rise at year 2040 and year 2100 for SSP5–8.5 climate change scenario. The model simulation shows that Freshwater zones (0–1 ppt) are expected to shrink drastically from 11,396 km2 to just 4,519 km2 in April. This will worsen the salinity levels in major rivers in coastal districts and consequently drinking water & food security of the region will be heavily threatened. This study can inform coastal surface water resources planning in Bangladesh, promoting water security and supporting advocacy against the impacts of climate change-induced sea level rise.

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Assessment of the Impacts of Sea Level Rise-Induced Salinity Intrusion in the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh and A Study of Major Rivers Salinity Levels in Southwestern Coastal Districts of Bangladesh

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Md. Raqubul Hasib,
  • Ahmad Salman Haider,
  • Upal Mahamud,
  • Ahnaf Shahriar,
  • Md. Jafrul Islam,
  • Zahirul Haque Khan,
  • Farhana Akhter Kamal

摘要

The coastal areas of Bangladesh are facing a significant increase in salinity intrusion due to climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR) and the decrease in transboundary flow. The upstream flow from the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers and the incoming tide from the downstream determine the level of salinity intrusion. The study investigates the salinity intrusion in the coastal zone of Bangladesh for SSP5–8.5 climate change scenario and how it affects the major river salinity in the Southwestern Districts of Bangladesh in terms of freshwater availability considerations. The Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) developed the calibrated Southwest Regional Model (SWRM) to predict river salinity in South-West and South-Central regions of Bangladesh. The SWRM is used to project the salinity ingress for the sea level rise at year 2040 and year 2100 for SSP5–8.5 climate change scenario. The model simulation shows that Freshwater zones (0–1 ppt) are expected to shrink drastically from 11,396 km2 to just 4,519 km2 in April. This will worsen the salinity levels in major rivers in coastal districts and consequently drinking water & food security of the region will be heavily threatened. This study can inform coastal surface water resources planning in Bangladesh, promoting water security and supporting advocacy against the impacts of climate change-induced sea level rise.