Modeling Hydrodynamic and Wave Impacts of a Proposed Manila Bay Reclamation Project
摘要
Reclamations in Manila Bay have become a contentious issue in recent years because aside from aiming to expand and decongest Manila's metropolitan area, hydrodynamic impacts to nearby coastal areas are inevitable. With this, the coastal hydrodynamic and wave impacts of the reclamation project specifically associated with the Manila Bay Integrated Flood Control, Coastal Defense, and Expressway (MBIFCCDE) Project were investigated for the prevailing and storm conditions by facilitating hindcast numerical simulations employing two-way coupling of Delft3D hydrodynamic and spectral wave models. These impacts, in terms of water levels and significant wave heights, are examined by comparing time series plots of the baseline case, which only considers the existing Manila Bay coastline, to those of the modified case, which factors in the additional land boundary from the reclamation and a 50-year downscaled sea level rise (SLR). The findings indicate that sheltered areas, situated at the upstream ends of newly formed channels, experience negligible change in prevailing high tide amplitudes, considerable decrease in prevailing low tide amplitudes, and positive tidal phase lags due to unequal flow forcing. For partially to fully exposed areas situated adjacent to the modified coastline, negligible changes in the tidal amplitudes and phases were observed. All observation areas witnessed negligible to minimal decrease in prevailing wave heights, mostly due to fetch length reduction. Considering the passage of 2014 Typhoon Rammasun as the representative storm condition, storm tide levels were only amplified at the northeastern areas, while the relative changes in storm wave heights varied across the study area.