The framework for legal access to self-determination through referendums, which was legitimised during the Yugoslav crisis, is no longer applicable. International norms that once constrained the exercise of power and facilitated peaceful self-determination are increasingly being supplanted by a realist approach focused on state interests, power projection, and strategic alignments. The erosion of the liberal international order has serious implications for independence referendums. Secessionist movements often emphasise the democratic legitimacy of independence referendums in democratic contexts. However, the rise of state nationalism and the retreat from established international norms have obstructed negotiations with separatist groups, resulting in political stalemates, repression, or crises. Given these developments, what realistic role can independence referendums play in the future? Are agreed referendums becoming increasingly rare? Rather than serving as definitive moments of statehood, referendums may increasingly take on symbolic or strategic functions. Only time will reveal whether these instruments can withstand rising tensions.