Three decades after the Yugoslav wars, Bosnia and Herzegovina still lacks a solid security and defence framework, with outdated 2006 and 2008 documents unable to address hybrid, cyber and geopolitical threats. Political elites exploit the sector for ethno-national agendas, while Russian influence, NATO divisions and an unclear European path exacerbate fragility. Only a new strategy, resilience against disinformation and modernisation of the armed forces can end stagnation and restore Bosnia’s credibility in international security. According to the traffic light model of threat perception, Bosnia and Herzegovina currently falls within the ‘yellow’ zone, reflecting a medium level, where external influence and domestic weaknesses create sustained insecurity, but without any immediate prospect of conflict. Nonetheless, external influence and weak institutions keep Bosnia fragile and reflect Europe’s broader dilemma.

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Between Wars and Worries: Why Bosnia and Herzegovina Needs a New Security Compass

  • Nerma Halilović-Kibrić

摘要

Three decades after the Yugoslav wars, Bosnia and Herzegovina still lacks a solid security and defence framework, with outdated 2006 and 2008 documents unable to address hybrid, cyber and geopolitical threats. Political elites exploit the sector for ethno-national agendas, while Russian influence, NATO divisions and an unclear European path exacerbate fragility. Only a new strategy, resilience against disinformation and modernisation of the armed forces can end stagnation and restore Bosnia’s credibility in international security. According to the traffic light model of threat perception, Bosnia and Herzegovina currently falls within the ‘yellow’ zone, reflecting a medium level, where external influence and domestic weaknesses create sustained insecurity, but without any immediate prospect of conflict. Nonetheless, external influence and weak institutions keep Bosnia fragile and reflect Europe’s broader dilemma.