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Using the Gravity model, this study analyzes the impact of socio-cultural factors on Vietnam’s trade potential based on 1.200 observations over 24 years from 50 trade partners, with data from UN Comtrade, the World Bank, and CEPII. The results show that GDP and population both Vietnam’s and its partners’ positively affect trade, while distance has a negative impact. Shared religion and colonial history enhance trade, whereas war significantly reduces it. Exchange rates and shared borders are found to be insignificant. Vietnam has strong trade potential with nearby countries sharing religious ties, such as China and parts of Western and Southern Asia, as well as with high-GDP nations like the U.S., Japan, and France. The study also highlights untapped trade opportunities with regions like Africa (e.g., Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire) and South America (e.g., Brazil, Chile).

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A Gravity Model for Exploring Socio-Cultural Factors Affecting Vietnam’s Trade Potential

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Giang Thi Van Phan,
  • An Thi Hong Duong

摘要

Using the Gravity model, this study analyzes the impact of socio-cultural factors on Vietnam’s trade potential based on 1.200 observations over 24 years from 50 trade partners, with data from UN Comtrade, the World Bank, and CEPII. The results show that GDP and population both Vietnam’s and its partners’ positively affect trade, while distance has a negative impact. Shared religion and colonial history enhance trade, whereas war significantly reduces it. Exchange rates and shared borders are found to be insignificant. Vietnam has strong trade potential with nearby countries sharing religious ties, such as China and parts of Western and Southern Asia, as well as with high-GDP nations like the U.S., Japan, and France. The study also highlights untapped trade opportunities with regions like Africa (e.g., Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire) and South America (e.g., Brazil, Chile).