The negative impact of infectious diseases on health and well-being is intrinsically linked to a combination of several stresses or drivers such as poor sanitation, access to clean water and food, the quality of public health services, political instability and conflict, drug resistance, and animal or human population movements. Future climate change, if not slowed down, seems most likely to affect the length of the transmission season and the geographical spread of a considerable fraction of infectious diseases. More broadly, climate change may rearrange the geographic distribution of animal species. VBDs are likely to be the most climate-sensitive subset of all infectious illnesses and have sensitivity to the greatest number of climate causes. Climate change is expected to significantly increase infection risk in East Africa by 20% over the next 20–50 years, and it might spread farther north into nonendemic areas of China by the 2050s. Mechanistic models explicitly model the climate–disease risk relationship, but need detailed information about vector and pathogen processes to parameterize the model, and these are often obtained from a collection of small-scale studies in the laboratory or field.

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Impact of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases

  • Ezera Agwu

摘要

The negative impact of infectious diseases on health and well-being is intrinsically linked to a combination of several stresses or drivers such as poor sanitation, access to clean water and food, the quality of public health services, political instability and conflict, drug resistance, and animal or human population movements. Future climate change, if not slowed down, seems most likely to affect the length of the transmission season and the geographical spread of a considerable fraction of infectious diseases. More broadly, climate change may rearrange the geographic distribution of animal species. VBDs are likely to be the most climate-sensitive subset of all infectious illnesses and have sensitivity to the greatest number of climate causes. Climate change is expected to significantly increase infection risk in East Africa by 20% over the next 20–50 years, and it might spread farther north into nonendemic areas of China by the 2050s. Mechanistic models explicitly model the climate–disease risk relationship, but need detailed information about vector and pathogen processes to parameterize the model, and these are often obtained from a collection of small-scale studies in the laboratory or field.