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Blockchain technologies have emerged as major enablers of digitalisation, yet their rapid expansion has raised serious environmental concerns. Bitcoin mining consumed approximately 121 TWh of electricity in 2023 and is projected to exceed 130 TWh in 2025, generating average annual emissions of about 40 Mt CO₂e and producing substantial electronic waste through accelerated hardware turnover. Despite multiple studies quantifying the environmental footprint of blockchain, existing assessments – mainly based on life-cycle analysis or economic estimation – remain descriptive and fragmented, lacking a coherent structure for environmental risk classification and optimisation.This study introduces, for the first time, an optimisation-based Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) framework specifically designed for blockchain technologies. The framework defines five core ecological dimensions – energy use, greenhouse-gas emissions, material intensity, cooling requirements, and electronic waste – and employs a consequence–probability matrix to classify risk levels across technological and geographical scenarios. Scenario modelling compares four technological pathways: Proof-of-Work on fossil-heavy grids, Proof-of-Work on renewables-rich grids, Proof-of-Stake (PoS), and permissioned distributed-ledger technologies (DLTs). International case studies, including the United States, Kazakhstan, Iceland, and Hyperledger Fabric pilots, illustrate how regional energy mixes and operational conditions influence risk outcomes. The results demonstrate that Proof-of-Work under fossil-intensive conditions represents a critical environmental risk, whereas Proof-of-Stake and permissioned architectures substantially mitigate energy and emission impacts. The proposed ERA methodology provides a structured approach for assessing and optimising ecological risks of blockchain technologies and for supporting evidence-based decision-making. It can also serve as a foundation for the development of new blockchain systems, infrastructures, and services sustainable by design.

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Optimisation Framework for Environmental Risk Assessment of Blockchain Technologies

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Maryna Gorobei,
  • Oleksandr Bondar

摘要

Blockchain technologies have emerged as major enablers of digitalisation, yet their rapid expansion has raised serious environmental concerns. Bitcoin mining consumed approximately 121 TWh of electricity in 2023 and is projected to exceed 130 TWh in 2025, generating average annual emissions of about 40 Mt CO₂e and producing substantial electronic waste through accelerated hardware turnover. Despite multiple studies quantifying the environmental footprint of blockchain, existing assessments – mainly based on life-cycle analysis or economic estimation – remain descriptive and fragmented, lacking a coherent structure for environmental risk classification and optimisation.This study introduces, for the first time, an optimisation-based Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) framework specifically designed for blockchain technologies. The framework defines five core ecological dimensions – energy use, greenhouse-gas emissions, material intensity, cooling requirements, and electronic waste – and employs a consequence–probability matrix to classify risk levels across technological and geographical scenarios. Scenario modelling compares four technological pathways: Proof-of-Work on fossil-heavy grids, Proof-of-Work on renewables-rich grids, Proof-of-Stake (PoS), and permissioned distributed-ledger technologies (DLTs). International case studies, including the United States, Kazakhstan, Iceland, and Hyperledger Fabric pilots, illustrate how regional energy mixes and operational conditions influence risk outcomes. The results demonstrate that Proof-of-Work under fossil-intensive conditions represents a critical environmental risk, whereas Proof-of-Stake and permissioned architectures substantially mitigate energy and emission impacts. The proposed ERA methodology provides a structured approach for assessing and optimising ecological risks of blockchain technologies and for supporting evidence-based decision-making. It can also serve as a foundation for the development of new blockchain systems, infrastructures, and services sustainable by design.