Investigating the Impact of Changing Climate on Temperature in Ghataprabha River Basin
摘要
A changing climate ensures a major impact on water resources. Most climate variability consequences are linked with warmth, changes in patterns of precipitation, with tendencies of rising yearly mean temperature. Therefore, the key goal of this study is to assess the possible consequences of climate change on the minimum and maximum temperatures over the Ghataprabha basin. The outputs of climate models, specifically the maximum and minimum temperatures, for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, across three different time periods: near-term (2010–2039), mid-term (2040–2069), and far-term (2070–2099) were downscaled using change factor method. Using spatial and histogram plots, the percentage variations between the minimum and maximum temperature were shown in relation to the historical (baseline) period (1961–1990). Additionally, the uncertainties in the projected values were quantified. It is observed from the study results, the average daily maximum and minimum temperatures under both scenarios showed a growing pattern when compared to the baseline values during the study period. The rising temperature in the study area could lead to higher water needs for irrigation in the future, so this should be taken into account when making policies. The study’s forecasts, which are depending on the ensemble mean over scenarios and global climate models, could serve as a reference for defining policies related to water management.