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This study explicates the determinants of per capita CO₂ emissions utilizing panel data from 37 OECD countries over the period 2020–2024. The analysis commences with testing for cross-sectional dependence (CSD), which was confirmed for all variables, leading to the application of the 2nd-generation unit root tests (CADF, CIPS) to verify the stationarity of the series. Subsequently, Westerlund’s panel cointegration test established a long-term equilibrium relationship between per capita CO₂ emissions and economic growth, annual average precipitation, renewable energy production share, total energy consumption, carbon intensity, Brent oil prices, and the US dollar exchange rate. However, the relatively short time dimension (T = 5) substantially limits the robustness and reliability of long-run coefficient estimates. Therefore, the analysis focuses on short-term dynamics rather than long-term estimations. Estimations conducted employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) revealed that economic growth, energy consumption, precipitation, and the US dollar exchange rate exert statistically significant positive effects on emissions, while renewable energy, despite displaying the expected negative sign, was not statistically significant. The findings reveal that energy consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and climatic variables are strong determinants of CO₂ emissions, highlighting the need for policy measures focused on energy efficiency, enhancing the effectiveness of renewable energy sources, and reducing carbon intensity.

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Determinants of Energy-Based CO₂ Emissions: A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Azize Kahramani Koç,
  • Osman Nuri Akarsu

摘要

This study explicates the determinants of per capita CO₂ emissions utilizing panel data from 37 OECD countries over the period 2020–2024. The analysis commences with testing for cross-sectional dependence (CSD), which was confirmed for all variables, leading to the application of the 2nd-generation unit root tests (CADF, CIPS) to verify the stationarity of the series. Subsequently, Westerlund’s panel cointegration test established a long-term equilibrium relationship between per capita CO₂ emissions and economic growth, annual average precipitation, renewable energy production share, total energy consumption, carbon intensity, Brent oil prices, and the US dollar exchange rate. However, the relatively short time dimension (T = 5) substantially limits the robustness and reliability of long-run coefficient estimates. Therefore, the analysis focuses on short-term dynamics rather than long-term estimations. Estimations conducted employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) revealed that economic growth, energy consumption, precipitation, and the US dollar exchange rate exert statistically significant positive effects on emissions, while renewable energy, despite displaying the expected negative sign, was not statistically significant. The findings reveal that energy consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and climatic variables are strong determinants of CO₂ emissions, highlighting the need for policy measures focused on energy efficiency, enhancing the effectiveness of renewable energy sources, and reducing carbon intensity.